Last night, I stayed up as long as I could, hoping to see the end of a very tumultuous, divisive election. Based on the polls and the poll of polls, I anticipated that most media outlets would project a Joe Biden win before midnight. But that was not the case. The difference in votes were so close that the vote counters in a few states decided to continue counting in the morning. While I was a bit disappointed, when I look out my window and see all of the local businesses boarded up in anticipation of a riot, maybe it is best to let everyone get some sleep.
But from the results I have seen so far, there is no guaranteed “blue wave” that all of the Biden supporters were bragging about and what some Republicans were fearing. The Democrats are expected to maintain control of the House of Representatives although their chances of winning control of the Senate are uncertain.
As for the battle for the White House, the Democrats were unable to flip Florida, Ohio, and Texas as many believed they would. And the rest of the states can go either way until all of the votes are counted.
Even if Democrats are able to control the government in 2021, their control will be fragile. This means they may have to work with Republicans on some issues or see another change in the midterms.
So what happened? Why wasn’t this election a quick cakewalk for the Democrats?
The most logical explanation is that the pollsters were wrong. Maybe their attempts at “randomizing” their sampling group did not work out the way they expected. Or they didn’t get enough participants so they had to make bigger guesses. Or perhaps some people didn’t want to disclose they wanted to vote for Donald Trump.
Or maybe the influencers, celebrities, and random social media commenters were wrong. A lot of people were saying that the blue wave was coming because of the increase in by-mail voting. When I asked them why they assumed all of them would vote Democrat, all I got was speculation. They said things like: “People will vote quickly if they are unhappy with the current government.” Or, “People don’t want to catch COVID, and that is all Trump’s fault.” And some people simply said, “Because [F] Trump.”
So will polling be credible in the future? Or will people take it as seriously as professional wrestling? I think so, but a lot of changes will have to be made. First, some media companies will need to get out of the polling business altogether or hire an outside company to do their polling. One example is the New York Times. While I generally respect the publication, their recent actions — such as the suspicious resignations of James Bennet and Bari Weiss — might make nonliberals hesitant to talk to them. Others who are angry at them may just troll them with false responses. I also think that Fox News, MSNBC, and CNN should take similar action. Because of the perceived bias of their brands, they are more likely to get false answers from hostile participants.
Also, the public and journalists should not blindly give substantial weight to what celebrities say. Celebrities are people, and they are entitled to their opinions. But I don’t think many people are going to vote based on who a celebrity endorses. Instead, most just feel better about their decisions and beliefs if they see that a celebrity agrees with them.
Hopefully by the time this gets published, the election results will be finalized and there won’t be a lawsuit afterward. [Ed. note: LOL, still no final results. -SZ] While there might be some changes after the election, it will not be a blue wave that was promised by pollsters, influencers, and celebrities. One thing is certain. These people have lost their credibility. How much they lost depends on who wins the White House.
Steven Chung is a tax attorney in Los Angeles, California. He helps people with basic tax planning and resolve tax disputes. He is also sympathetic to people with large student loans. He can be reached via email at sachimalbe@excite.com. Or you can connect with him on Twitter (@stevenchung) and connect with him on LinkedIn.