The U.S. Capitol (photo by David Lat).
When people lament that robots are going to replace us, they’re usually wrong. Even if one job is automated, a human will ultimately still be involved in the process somewhere. Not to undersell the short-term impacts of automation on individuals, but as a society these things tend to shake out over the long haul.
One group that we might actually be able to replace entirely are politicians. Even if hapless talking heads couldn’t figure it out, a predictive engine could have easily known that Susan Collins wasn’t going to convict Donald Trump when she could just be “very concerned.”TM While questions like the impeachment trial may be easy, there is legislation that may be less exciting, but still critically important to the businesses that rely on attorneys for advice. Determining the odds of success for a pending proposal can have a big impact.
Earlier today, Westlaw Edge announced its new Legislative Insights tool, the result of a partnership with Skopos Labs to provide attorneys with a prediction on the likelihood of passage generated by machine learning and considering over 250 factors. The tool will also identify impacted industries.
Among the 250 factors are textual insights that those drafting bills may want to heed:
The algorithm weighs multiple factors, including the text of a bill as well as political and external variables. A text example could show an environmental bill would be more or less likely to pass with the terms “climate change” included compared to a bill where “global warming” is used. Political variables could range from the composition of Congress to the assigned committee. External factors incorporated may be related to gross domestic product or natural disasters.
The difference in passage based on “global warming” vs. “climate change” may be an indirect insight into the outsized influence of lobbyists in the legislative process. It also puts to bed the childish “textualism” argument though. We’ve now got hard data that lawmakers are passing bills with the exact same intent based on providing PR cover to donors. It may take a few years but we’re eventually going to see a new Brandeis using AI to break down legislative intent by cutting through textual choices.
Until all that comes to pass, this is the information clients need. And maybe those legislators could use it too. A bit of a cold hard look in the mirror to see just how easily manipulated they’ve become.
But they won’t do that. I don’t need machine learning to predict that one.
Joe Patrice is a senior editor at Above the Law and co-host of Thinking Like A Lawyer. Feel free to email any tips, questions, or comments. Follow him on Twitter if you’re interested in law, politics, and a healthy dose of college sports news. Joe also serves as a Managing Director at RPN Executive Search.