‘We got jobs before COVID! Woohoo!’
Last year, we saw one of the first truly positive law school job reports in about a decade, where we were looking at employment outcomes that “approach pre-recession levels.” This year, the numbers are even better, with the job market for law school graduates the best we’ve seen in the 12 years since the Great Recession. Alas, thanks to the coronavirus crisis, this may be the last time we see employment numbers reach such great heights.
According to the latest entry-level employment figures from the National Association of Law Placement (NALP), the class of 2019’s employment outcomes were very strong. The overall graduate employment increased to 90.3 percent (0.9 percent over the class of 2018), which is the highest employment rate recorded since the the class of 2007 saw an overall rate of 91.9 percent. On top of that, the number of graduates employed in full-time, long-term jobs where bar passage was required was 74.3 percent (an increase of more than 3 percent), a percentage that’s even higher than rates measured before the recession. In fact, it’s the highest level ever recorded.
More than half (55.2 percent) of the class of 2019 found jobs in private practice firms, and this is the closest we’ve come to 2009 figures (55.9 percent) since that time. Once again, much of the class of 2019’s success in the job market was thanks to Biglaw employment, with 30.2 percent of jobs at firms with more than 500 lawyers (an increase of 1.1 percent from last year), which is higher than levels seen pre-recession in 2008 and 2009, which were just over 25 percent. On the flip side, the percentage of solo practice jobs was at a historic low of 1.5 percent — just 0.8 percent of all jobs.
This is all fantastic news, but unfortunately, it’s coming at a time when the most recent graduating class is facing an incredibly difficult job market thanks to the pandemic. That said, here’s a tempered take from James Leipold, NALP’s executive director, on the latest employment figures:
The good news is that employment outcomes and salary findings for members of the Class of 2019 are among the strongest ever measured and set several new highwater marks. The bad news is that they are not likely to be predictive of the employment outcomes for the next several classes, as the recession and other changes brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to provide a much more challenging job market for some years to come.
It can’t be that bad, right? Wrong. Here are some additional depressing quotes from Leipold in NALP’s latest report (emphasis added):
- “[A]ll bets are off in terms of predicting employment outcomes for the next several classes. We know that the COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc with the entire labor market, and certainly the legal services sector is not immune.”
- “[M]embers of the Class of 2020 face uncertainty about when and how they will take the bar exam and become licensed, with different jurisdictions making different decisions, sometimes continuing to postpone bar exam plans as the virus levels surge in different parts of the country. Many members of the Class of 2020 that have jobs as entry-level associates at law firms have already had their start dates deferred at least until early 2021.”
- “Members of the Class of 2021, many of whom would ordinarily be summer associates this summer, have had their summer programs foreshortened, and delivered virtually, and in some cases canceled altogether, and those without job offers at the end of this summer are likely to face an uncertain job market as 3Ls in the fall.”
- “Members of the Class of 2022, most of whom had only one semester of grades before schools moved on an emergency basis to remote teaching and pass/fail grading systems, face perhaps the most uncertainty of all, with their OCI programs now mostly delayed until winter, and continued uncertainty about whether they will be able to return to campus at all in the fall.”
So what do we have to look forward to in terms of law graduate employment in the wake of the pandemic? Not much. “[I]t is all but inevitable that the employment outcomes for the Class of 2019 will stand as a high-water mark for some time to come,” says Leipold. “Of course even some of the jobs they had secured are at risk in the current environment.”
Biglaw jobs will still be around, but associate classes are likely to be smaller. Graduates in search of employment will likely start their own law firms, and the number of school-funded jobs are sure to climb as they did during the last recession. “The need for lawyers will persist, but the current historic events unfolding around us are likely to change the legal sector, like every sector, in ways that are hard to foresee or predict with any accuracy,” cautions Leipold.
Great work, class of 2019. As for everyone else, good luck.
Jobs & JDs: Class of 2019 [NALP]
Class of 2019 Attains Highest Employment Rate in 12 Years as Uncertainty Looms for Class of 2020 [NALP]
Employment for the Class of 2019 — Selected Findings [NALP]
Staci Zaretsky is a senior editor at Above the Law, where she’s worked since 2011. She’d love to hear from you, so please feel free to email her with any tips, questions, comments, or critiques. You can follow her on Twitter or connect with her on LinkedIn.