2020 is a year, and therefore there is a good chance Argentina will default in it. History tells us there’s a 6% chance that it will happen in any given year, although over the last seven decades, it’s actually been more like 9%, or once every 11 years or so. And, you know, it’s been all of six years since the last one, which is not to say that the country’s due for a bout of non-bill-paying, only that it’s getting there—and it seems more likely now than, say, five months ago.
So, while we know Argentina’s gonna need to restructure its debt again, we don’t know if it’s going to go the rout of first repudiating it to get there. But there’s a pretty big part of Argentina ready to do so, and it’s led by a guy who knows a thing or two about defaulting (if somewhat less about the U.S. doctrine of separation of powers).