Taking a break from its messy batshit drama, Credit Suisse put out a research note today.
The bank’s equity strategy desk weighed in on what we’re really looking at in terms of all this “recession” talk. And according to the boys in Zurich, the US economy is neither fully shrinking or fully growing. Credit Suisse thinks we have a semi:
Credit Suisse said weak manufacturing data accompanied by healthy economic data elsewhere lands the economy in a middle ground.
“While investors debate whether we’re entering a recession, we believe the backdrop is better described as a ‘Semi-Recession,’” said Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Jonathan Golub in a note to clients Wednesday.
But Golub doesn’t want anyone to get too concerned; he’s pretty certain that we’ll be able to achieve a full-on recession any day now, considering all the negative stimuli all around us:
Alongside weak manufacturing data, the yield curve is inverted on the short end, meaning the 10-year Treasury note has a lower yield than the 3-month Treasury bill. This bond market phenomena is regarded as a recessionary signal.
“Recessionary risks are clearly rising,” said Golub. “Absent a reacceleration in cyclical data, stock upside appears limited,” said Golub.
While the bank didn’t say it in the note, we feel it would be wise to add the disclaimer that if your full-on recession lasts more than four trading days, call Larry Kudlow and Steve Mnuchin.
Credit Suisse has a word to describe this sluggish economy — a ‘semi-recession’ [CNBC]