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The best current thinking is that Donald Trump has a one in four chance of winning re-election.
Assume first that Trump wins. The future of the Republican party is at least straightforward: The party would not realign. It won! There’s no need to realign in the face of victory. Trump would serve until 2024; candidates for the 2024 Republican nomination would begin to throw elbows; everything else would remain unchanged for four years.
But assume that Trump loses. What becomes of the Republican Party?
This is a challenging thought experiment. The Republicans, having suffered a loss, would try to find conservative ground that could attract a majority of American voters. What would that look like?
The most interesting possibility is that Republicans realign behind a platform that unites the conservatives of the right with the Bernie Bros of the left: The Republicans would become pure America-firsters. The party would strive mightily to protect American jobs — a worthy goal. This reformed party would thus support tariffs, which increase the price of imports compared to goods produced in America. The party would oppose immigration, which allows foreign workers to enter the country and compete with Americans. The party would oppose membership in international organizations (such as NATO, WHO, and the United Nations), which waste American resources on irrelevant foreign affairs. The party would oppose most uses of American force, which again simply inject Americans into foreign conflicts. The new Republicans wouldn’t be overly concerned about the environment. If we can maintain jobs (because the cost of producing goods is lower, so the sales price is lower), Republicans would be less worried about global warming, the Green New Deal, or the quality of air or water.
The internationalists — the new Democrats — would inhabit the opposite end of the spectrum. They would support free trade, liberalizing immigration, playing a major role in the world, and protecting the environment.
This strikes me as a worthy struggle between two belief systems. I’m not sure who would win in an election between these two sets of beliefs, and I’m fairly sure we could stop hating each other as we debated these issues.
But then I thought harder.
If Trump loses this fall, he remains eligible for re-election in 2024.
If he loses in a close contest, he remains a strong contender for the 2024 nomination.
Whatever you think of Trump, he loves the spotlight, he’s good at attracting it, and he probably wouldn’t give it up easily.
Immediately after the 2020 election, the best way for Trump to draw the spotlight would be to proclaim that he was outraged, or the election was a fraud, or whatever, and that he intended to run again in 2024.
Wouldn’t this stop the Republican Party in its tracks?
Trump would immediately be the front-runner in the Republican 2024 primaries, and he would still have massive support in the Republican Party. Mike Pence, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, or Nikki Haley wouldn’t stand a chance against Trump as he moved toward 2024. And the parties surely wouldn’t realign, as I hypothesized above; they would march in place until this got sorted out.
How would it sort out?
Maybe — maybe — this would be sorted out by a criminal proceeding. I doubt that Trump would be prosecuted for any federal crime after the end of his presidency. If Trump lost the election, he’d pardon himself before he left office. That may not effectively bar a criminal prosecution, but it would surely gum things up in the courts for several years. By the time those years had passed, Biden (or his successor) would think (as Ford did long ago) that it’s generally not a good idea to prosecute former presidents. In any event, that would be several years from now, and memories would begin to fade about whatever supposed evils Trump had done. And Trump would be getting old; what purpose would it serve to put an old man in prison?
So nothing would happen at the federal level.
The states, however, are a different story. I don’t know what the states are currently investigating, or what they might choose to investigate as tax returns are disclosed and testimony taken in civil cases. I surely don’t know whether Trump has committed any crimes for which he could properly be convicted. But I suspect that many Democratic state attorneys general and local district attorneys would think the road to a bright political future was paved with the body of Trump. Jury selection in any criminal cases those prosecutors chose to bring would be a zoo, and the jurors would do battle over whether Trump should be imprisoned for just being himself or set free after shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.
Only after the 2024 primary season concluded, or those criminal cases came and went, would the Republican Party start thinking about life after Trump.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.