Could new figures forecast hyperinflation for Zimbabwe? – The Zimbabwean

Prices are soaring in Zimbabwe a decade after hyperinflation forced it to ditch its currency [File: Philimon Bulawayo/Reuters]

Harare, Zimbabwe – The spectre of hyperinflation is looming over Zimbabwe again, a decade after runaway prices forced the country to abandon its currency.

Annualized inflation in Zimbabwe surged to 175.66 percent in June, up from 97.85 percent in May, the country’s statistical office said Monday.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 39.9 percent in June compared with 12.54 percent in May. Hyperinflation occurs when prices rise 50 percent per month.

“This is surprising. No one was expecting it was gonna be this bad,” economist John Robertson of Robertson Economics, told Al Jazeera.

Monday’s price report was a grim reminder of 2008, when inflation in the economically troubled southern African nation peaked at 500 billion percent, prompting Zimbabwe to ditch its currency in 2009 and “dollarize” by allowing the United States dollar and other foreign currencies to be used as legal tender.

This year, Zimbabwe started laying the groundwork for a new sovereign currency with the introduction of the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) dollar or “Zimdollar”, which has become a target of black market speculators. In a bid to defend the Zimdollar against such speculation, the country’s finance minister in June outlawed using foreign currencies in local transactions.

But the Zimdollar continues to lose ground against foreign currencies. As Robertson points out, this creates serious problems for Zimbabwe because the country relies heavily on imports of goods and raw materials that are paid for in foreign exchange.

Inflation may be worse than official statistics suggest

Monday’s price data was also troubling because Zimstat, Zimbabwe’s national statistics agency, said that it had not changed its formula in March for measuring inflation, the June reading based on the old formula would technically have landed the country in hyperinflation territory.

Beyond formulas, prices of goods are rising so fast that the official data may not be capturing just how troubled the situation is becoming.

“The June figure of 175.66 percent could still be lower than the actual price hikes experienced in the market where prices for most fast-moving consumer goods doubled more than twice,” said Harare-based independent economist Victor Bhoroma.

Bhoroma told Al Jazeera that he predicts inflation will be above 200 percent by the end of the year, fed by several factors: price hikes for essentials such as fuel and electricity, salary increases for civil servants, the issuing of more government debt, and the minting of new Zimbabwean notes and coins.

While Robertson sees inflation rising fast in July and August, he believes it will start to stabilise this fall.

“I think prices are not going to be rising as fast after September,” he told Al Jazeera.” The exchange rate should remain at current levels for the next couple of months. But there is still a risk [that] demand for forex [foreign exchange] may increase against limited supplies. If that happens, then the exchange rate may actually weaken against the US dollar.”

Two million in Zimbabwe’s capital have no water as city turns off taps – The Zimbabwean

More than two million residents around Zimbabwe’s capital have no access to running water, as drought and breakdowns push the city system to collapse.

Just 50% of 4.5 million people in Harare and four satellite towns currently have access to the municipal water supply, the city authority told Climate Home News.

“There is a rotational water supply within the five towns,” Harare city council corporate communications manager Michael Chideme said. “Some people are getting water five days a week especially in the western suburbs, but the northern suburbs are going for weeks without a drop in their taps.”

Chideme said people were either depending on water merchants, open wells, streams or several council-drilled boreholes. “The situation is bad, period!”

Dr Jean-Marie Kileshye from WaterNet warned Harare’s water was highly polluted: “Water-borne diseases linked to these boreholes are on the rise, but people have had to take in their own hands water supply because the utility has failed to provide water.”

Hardlife Mudzingwa, of Harare’s Community Water Alliance, said 10 typhoid cases were reported during the first week of July in the southwestern suburb of Glen View.

Cities around the world are facing increased water stress. Last week, the Indian city of Chennai began using trains to ferry in emergency supplies after rains failed. In 2018, Cape Town in South Africa avoided a city-wide water network shutdown by just a few months.

Zimbabwe is getting warmer as the climate changes and heavy rains and droughts are becoming more intense. In Harare, rains are expected in October at earliest, according to James Ngoma of the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department.

In 2018, a drought warning was issued to Zimbabwe by the Southern Africa Development Community. But those messages were not getting through, said Brad Garanganga, a climate scientist from Zimbabwe. Under-resourced meteorological departments had not been able to help policy makers “make decisions to take action on this type of important information ahead of time rather than wait until a crisis hit”.

Harare obtains raw water from four dams: Harava, Seke, Chivero and Manyame. Harava and Seke are completely dry. This has led Harare city council to decommission the Prince Edward water treatment plant, which is fed by those dams.

This has left only one water treatment works – Morton Jaffray – supplying water to Harare and the four other satellite towns.

The dams that feed Morton Jaffray – Chivero and Manyame – are larger and closer to capacity, said Harare mayor Herbert Gomba. But they are “heavily polluted”, requiring more than 10 chemicals to purify. Upstream towns dump domestic, sewage, agricultural and mining waste into the rivers that feed the capital’s dams. The city is spending $3 million a month on water treatment chemicals, Gomba said, forcing it to restrict the amount released.

Decreased water levels at the highly-polluted Lake Chivero (Photo: Justin Mutenda/Herald)

Harare’s daily demand is around 1,200 million litres (Ml). Gomba told CHN the city was producing around 450Ml a day. Last month, Harare City Council recommended the water situation be declared a national emergency.

Community organiser Mudzingwa said he believed the city supplies to be less than 100Ml/day. Companies that packaged and sold bottled water to supermarkets and hotels were still receiving municipal supplies, while residents saw their taps turned off, he claimed.

Harare’s water system was designed to service a population of 350,000 people, said Kileshye. The last upgrade was in 1994, but the country has since been in near-constant economic crisis. The city council’s website says some sections of infrastructure have been in use for more than 60 years, “way beyond their economic life of at least 15 years”.

With this in mind, in 2011, the Zimbabwean government signed a loan of $144m from the China Export-Import (Exim) Bank to upgrade its water infrastructure.

The government has accessed $72m, according to Gomba, with which the Morton Jaffray water treatment plant was rehabilitated. But five distribution centres and two sewage treatment plants were yet to rehabilitated.

Mudzingwa raised questions over how the other half of the loan was administered, saying: “A 2014 internal audit report produced by City of Harare showed that there was inflating of quotations on materials that were bought through the loan. Corruption marred the water project with commodities overpriced, hence the government was not able to access the full amount.”

Gomba rejected corruption allegations. “We never received liquid money, but equipment procured from China. It was due to the government’s inability to honour previous loans following the economic crisis that hindered access to the balance, not corruption.”

The mayor added that non-payment of residential and commercial rates was hampering his administration from effectively delivering water. Even after rehabilitation, he warned supplies from Prince Edward and Morton Jaffray works would reach only 770Ml per day, leaving a shortfall of 430Ml.

“We have to construct three new dams, to add about 840 million cubic metres. But over time Harare has to decommission the old dams and allow them time to rehabilitate naturally,” said the mayor.

Map: Two of Harare’s four reservoirs, Chivero and Manyame, seen to the west of the city, are heavily polluted.

In 2016, the Zimbabwean government signed a contract with a Chinese contractor Sinohydro to construct a dam northeast of the capital Harare. Mudzingwa said construction of Kunzvi-Musami Dam – 67 km outside Harare – was estimated to cost $850-900 million. But the project was not new.

“The discussion on the construction Kunzvi-Musami Dam as an alternative water source started as early as 1990 but is still not ready,” he said. “The central and local government have failed us on water supply.”

Mudzingwa agreed an urgent infrastructure upgrade was needed to solve the water challenges in Harare but he stressed the need for budget transparency. “We must also ensure citizens are involved actively in water governance framework and smart coordination between water sectors,” he said.

Council spokesperson Chideme said the city was running education programmes for citizens, “to minimize pollution of available water resources and while effectively using the available water sparingly so that we do not run out of water”.

“Technology by itself will not be good enough,” said WaterNet’s Kileshye. “The people across the whole spectrum from households, industries need to be made aware that they are part of the solution to sustainable water in cities.”

MDC Vice President Lynette Karenyi Lands Top WAFA Post – The Zimbabwean

It is hoped that the elevation of Hon. Karenyi will help the MDC enhance its regional presence across Africa. Hon. Karenyi was over the weekend elected as the Women’s Academy for Africa (WAFA) Deputy Treasurer General.

The elections were held at the end of the WAFA Training of Trainers workshop that was held at Maputo in Mozambique.

WAFA seeks to promote gender equality based on social democracy, good governance, justice and solidarity. The organisation aims to promote gender equality, and political advancement of women from Labour, Socialists and Social Democratic parties across Africa.

WAFA is currently represented across nine African countries. The countries are Botswana, Cameroon, Ghana, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania, Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), Uganda and Zimbabwe.

MDC: (1999 – 2019) Celebrating 20 Years of Tenacity and Courage

Daniel Molokele
MDC National Spokesperson

Zimbabwe inflation rate soars to 175% – The Zimbabwean

Finance Minister of Zimbabwe Mthuli Ncube, gestures during an interview with AFP at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting, on January 22, 2019, in Davos, eastern Switzerland. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP)

HARARE – Zimbabwe annual inflation rate hit 175 percent in June, official data showed on Monday, stoking fears of a return of the hyperinflation that wiped out savings ten years ago when the economy collapsed.

Official inflation is the highest since hyperinflation forced the government to abandon the Zimbabwe dollar in 2009.

Supplies of essentials such as bread, medicine and petrol are regularly running short in the country.

“The year-on-year inflation rate for the month of June 2019 as measured by the all items consumer price index stood at 175.66 percent while that of May 2019 was 97.85 percent,” the Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency said in a statement.

Millions of Zimbabweans have fled abroad in the last 20 years seeking work.

Many others are now seeking to leave as conditions worsen under President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who had promised an economic revival after he succeeding long-ruling Robert Mugabe in 2017.

Mnangagwa vowed to end the country’s international isolation, attract investors and create growth that could fund the country’s shattered public services.

But the economy has declined further, with shop prices rocketing and long power cuts.

The US dollar has been the national currency since 2009.

But last month, Zimbabwe, in theory, ended the use of US dollars and other foreign currencies and replaced them by two local parallel currencies — “bond notes” and electronic RTGS dollars, which would combine to become the new “Zimbabwe dollar”.

The new “Zimbabwe dollar” does not yet exist in paper form.

Hyperinflation hit 500 billion percent in 2009.

MDC Vice President Lynette Karenyi Lands Top WAFA Post
What are ‘appropriate technologies’? Pathways for mechanising African agriculture

Post published in: Business

Of Course Jeffrey Epstein Has A Fake Passport

At a bail hearing in Manhattan, prosecutors argued that Jeffrey Epstein is a flight risk and recommended no bail. From Courthouse News:

Pushing to keep Jeffrey Epstein behind bars, U.S. prosecutors said Monday that investigators have uncovered a foreign passport with the wealthy sex offender’s picture and an assumed name.

At a hearing this morning in Manhattan federal court, Assistant U.S. Attorney Alex Rossmiller also described “art and diamonds” that the government found in Epstein’s $77 million Upper East Side mansion.

“How much money does he have? Where is it?” Rossmiller said of Epstein’s suspected cache of undisclosed assets. “How much of it is in diamonds or art?”

Defense attorneys argued Epstein should be placed on house arrest… which is I guess the euphemism we’re going with to describe the gilded mansion attended by servants that constitutes Epstein’s “house.”

Look, let’s not waste time wondering if Epstein should be denied bail; of course he should be denied bail. Of course he shouldn’t be allowed to live in his mansion. Of course he poses a significant flight risk.

My question is: why didn’t he fly already?

Epstein was arrested at Teterboro Airport in New Jersey, coming back from Paris, France. One assumes he didn’t know the arrest was coming, despite months of hard reporting in the Miami Herald about his crimes.

His lack of anticipation seems like the ultimate hubris. Based on the evidence brought forth at his bail hearing today, it would certainly seem like Epstein was prepared to skip town at a moment’s notice. In addition to the fake passport, he had, you know, his real one. It’s mind boggling to me that this alleged sex trafficker was so sure he’d get away with his crimes that he likely had an international “go” plan, yet didn’t feel the need to put that plan into motion. How did he think this was going to work? Did he think he’d have buddies in the prosecutor’s office that would “tip him off” before the arrest warrant went out? Did he think Matt Damon from The Departed would send him a text?

Jeffrey Epstein could be on a beach in Phuket under an assumed named far away from accountability and retribution for his disgusting alleged crimes. Instead, he’s in jail, and should hopefully be there for the rest of his life.

Phony Epstein Passport, Plus Art and Diamonds, Unearthed [Courthouse News Service]


Elie Mystal is the Executive Editor of Above the Law and a contributor at The Nation. He can be reached @ElieNYC on Twitter, or at elie@abovethelaw.com. He will resist.

The Best Of Biglaw In International Law

Why Law Firms Are Moving to the Cloud

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Scott Minerd Teases His Own Fed Nomination, Keeps Talking So No Everyone Knows Why It Didn’t Happen

Guggenheim Partners’ brain is possibly interested in running everyone’s money.

Why I’m The Inigo Montoya Of Employment Law

(Screenshot via IMDb)

If you’ve seen The Princess Bride, you remember Vizzini the Sicilian and his cohort, Inigo Montoya, the Spanish swordsman (“Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.”). You’ll also remember Vizzini repeatedly describing unfolding events as “inconceivable.” In one scene, when the Dread Pirate Roberts does not plummet to his death after Vizzini cuts a rope the pirate is ascending on the side of a cliff, Vizzini exclaims, “Inconceivable!”

Inigo Montoya, having just watched the events unfold, turns to Vizzini and says, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” The line has always been famous among cult followers of the film and even inspired a popular meme.

I think about (and almost use) Mr. Montoya’s line quite a bit because a lot of phrases in the employment law lexicon don’t mean what they sound like they’d mean.

For example, one of the baristas at my favorite coffee shop found out last week that I’m a labor and employment lawyer, and he asked me a few questions. He mentioned at one point that Georgia is a “right to work” state and that, as such, he understood that he has a right to his job and could only be fired for a good and legitimate reason.

I guess that’s a reasonable assumption. The term “right to work” certainly sounds like it has something to do with, well, someone’s right to a job. By logical extension, someone shouldn’t be able to take away that right without a good reason, right?

But that’s not the case.

Many states have enacted laws or even amended their constitutions to add provisions addressing the rights of workers to be employed without: (1) joining or maintaining membership in unions; or (2) paying dues or fees to unions that represent them for purposes of collective bargaining.

These are “right to work” laws, and they are typically designed to protect employees’ rights to work without affiliating with unions or contributing financial support to unions. These laws do not create a right to a job or a right to only be fired for cause.

More than half of our states have “right to work” laws of some kind. The following 23 states do not have such laws covering private sector employers: Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

Another very misunderstood employment law term of art is “harassment.” In my role as an employment lawyer, I frequently encounter individuals who believe that they have been harassed at work and that their rights have thus been violated.

It may be that someone feels his or her co-worker has been repeatedly (and deeply) insulting to them. It might be that a someone believes his or her supervisor has been bullying him or her. I see allegations of harassment in just about every workplace scenario you can imagine. While I usually don’t doubt the veracity of what individuals are saying, I’m usually skeptical about whether the harassment they’ve experienced is legally actionable.

Google Dictionary defines harassment as “aggressive pressure or intimidation.” This is the definition most people apply when they’re evaluating whether their rights have been violated at work. And while aggressive pressure and/or intimidation might be present when legally actionable harassment occurs, pressure and intimidation are ultimately insufficient on their own to satisfy the legal definition of harassment.

The definition of harassment applied by courts is typically unwelcome conduct that is based on a protected category. Protected categories include: race, color, religion, gender, pregnancy, national origin, age (specifically, 40 or older), disability, or genetic information.

In addition to the conduct needing to be because of or based on a protected category, unlawful harassment occurs only when the conduct is severe or pervasive enough to create a work environment that a reasonable person would consider intimidating, hostile, or abusive. Conduct that’s better classified as petty slights or annoyances, or that are isolated incidents (unless extremely serious, and I mean very serious), will generally not rise to the level of illegality.

These are high legal thresholds to meet, while the satisfying the Google Dictionary is much easier. This has led to a lot of disconnect and misunderstanding. It is also why, I believe, employers win the vast majority of employment cases at the summary judgment stage.

So the next time someone mentions “right to work” laws or “harassment” at work, direct them to this article. This article can play the role of Inigo Montoya and tell them, “I do not think that word means what you think it means.”


evan-gibbsEvan Gibbs is an attorney at Troutman Sanders, where he primarily litigates employment cases and handles traditional labor matters. Connect with him on LinkedIn here, or e-mail him here. (The views expressed in this column are his own.)

U.S. Escalates War Against Asylum Seekers With Latest Circumvention Of International Law

Donald Trump is trying to change the U.S. asylum laws, via executive action, in contravention of U.S. law, again. Again, Trump perceives that mistreatment of asylum seekers, in contravention of established principles of international law, will play well with his white supremacist base and the majority of white people who voted for him. Again, he’s probably not wrong.

The proposed change affects whether asylum seekers can even seek asylum. The new rule states that people who reach America cannot seek asylum if they passed through another country and did not seek asylum there first. Here are some of Trump’s evil henchmen explaining the anti-immigrant policy, on NBC News:

“Until Congress can act, this interim rule will help reduce a major ‘pull’ factor driving irregular migration to the United States and enable DHS and DOJ to more quickly and efficiently process cases originating from the southern border, leading to fewer individuals transiting through Mexico on a dangerous journey,” Department of Homeland Security Acting Secretary Kevin McAleenan said in the statement.

Attorney General William Barr called the interim final rule a “lawful exercise of authority provided by Congress to restrict eligibility for asylum.”

As with this racist administration’s other attempts to change asylum rules, this new gambit is illegal under U.S. law. We’re not talking about a norm, or a practice — there is actual statutory language here that makes Trump’s move illegal on its face:

8 U.S. Code § 1158 – Asylum

(a) Authority to apply for asylum
(1) In general
Any alien who is physically present in the United States or who arrives in the United States (whether or not at a designated port of arrival and including an alien who is brought to the United States after having been interdicted in international or United States waters), irrespective of such alien’s status, may apply for asylum in accordance with this section or, where applicable, section 1225(b) of this title.

(2) Exceptions
(A) Safe third country
Paragraph (1) shall not apply to an alien if the Attorney General determines that the alien may be removed, pursuant to a bilateral or multilateral agreement, to a country (other than the country of the alien’s nationality or, in the case of an alien having no nationality, the country of the alien’s last habitual residence) in which the alien’s life or freedom would not be threatened on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion, and where the alien would have access to a full and fair procedure for determining a claim to asylum or equivalent temporary protection, unless the Attorney General finds that it is in the public interest for the alien to receive asylum in the United States.

That language does not authorize the Attorney General to deny asylum seekers; it authorizes him to remove them, on a case-by-base basis, only after determining that there is some third country that could hear the asylum-seeker’s claim without prejudice. The proposal here contemplates using that exceptional authority indiscriminately towards all asylum seekers without any notice about whether the pass-through countries are willing and capable of providing a fair, non-prejudicial adjudication of an asylum-seeker’s claims.

If laws are not your thing, we also have international practices that tell us Trump’s asylum proposal violates human rights conventions. From the International Justice Research Center:

The basic principle of refugee law, non-refoulement refers to the obligation of States not to refoule, or return, a refugee to “the frontiers of territories where his life or freedom would be threatened on account of his race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.” 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, art. 33(1). Non-refoulement is universally acknowledged as a human right.

Trump refuses to accord asylum seekers with the basic rights given to them by U.S. law and international conventions. His actions are consistent with a rogue state warlord, and not “the leader of the free world.” Yet white-wing Republicans continue to support these policies.

I wonder why.

Trump administration moves to end asylum protections for most Central American migrants [NBC News]


Elie Mystal is the Executive Editor of Above the Law and a contributor at The Nation. He can be reached @ElieNYC on Twitter, or at elie@abovethelaw.com. He will resist.