Prominent Election Lawyer Stunned By Trump’s Legally Incoherent Plan To Win Election 2020

(Photo by PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)

It is a distressing moment for me as a longtime Republican to see a call to disenfranchise so many people. … What the President said [last night] is not only unprecedented and it not only lacks any basis in the law, it really is a disservice to all the other men and women who are on the ballot as Republicans….

Ben Ginsberg, a veteran Republican election lawyer, commenting on President Donald Trump’s declaration of victory before securing 270 electoral votes, his attacks on legitimate vote-counting efforts that are still ongoing in several battleground states, and his plan to take the election to the Supreme Court.


Staci ZaretskyStaci Zaretsky is a senior editor at Above the Law, where she’s worked since 2011. She’d love to hear from you, so please feel free to email her with any tips, questions, comments, or critiques. You can follow her on Twitter or connect with her on LinkedIn.

Baker Botts Rolls Back COVID Cuts, And Makes Another Round Of Special Bonuses

I don’t know about you, but I could sure use some good news. I don’t expect an election result, well, any time today, so how about some Biglaw news? Like maybe a Biglaw firm doing an about face on COVID austerity measures and throwing in some extra bonuses for good measure.

Thanks for the election news reprieve Baker Botts.

After previously announcing a plan of “collective sacrifice” to get through the global health crisis, Baker Botts changed course. In July, the salary cuts — 20 to 30 percent based on salary level for counsel, 20 percent for associates, and 0 to 20 percent based on salary level for staff — were reduced by 50 percent (at the associate level, that made it just 10 percent). And now the firm has announced, that effective November 1st, the entirely of the COVID salary cuts will be reversed.

What’s more, when announcing the July rollbacks, they also did a round of interim bonuses for the May 1 – July 31 period. In announcing this rollback, there is another round of bonuses in the offing:

As mentioned in prior announcements, we will also be awarding interim bonuses to non-partner timekeepers who have made exceptional contributions over the past months. Bonus eligibility will be determined based on a number of factors, including utilization and exemplary client service, for the August 1 – October 31 period, as recorded in adherence with the Firm’s time entry policy and deadlines.  To be eligible for this interim bonus, which will be paid before year-end, timekeepers must be in good standing and actively employed at the Firm on the date of payment.

Read the full email on the next page.

Remember everyone, we depend on your tips to stay on top of important bonus updates, so when your firm announces any type of bonus payment for associates, please text us (646-820-8477) or email us (subject line: “[Firm Name] Bonuses”). Please include the memo if available. You can take a photo of the memo and send it via text or email if you don’t want to forward the original PDF or Word file.

And if you’d like to sign up for ATL’s Bonus Alerts (which is the alert list we also use for salary announcements), please scroll down and enter your email address in the box below this post. If you previously signed up for the bonus alerts, you don’t need to do anything. You’ll receive an email notification within minutes of each bonus announcement that we publish. Thanks for all of your help!


headshotKathryn Rubino is a Senior Editor at Above the Law, and host of The Jabot podcast. AtL tipsters are the best, so please connect with her. Feel free to email her with any tips, questions, or comments and follow her on Twitter (@Kathryn1).

Huh? You Can’t Just Ignore Court Orders?

Judge Emmet Sullivan ordered the Post Office to deliver ballots yesterday.

The Post Office said that they “declined” to follow this order.

Didn’t… know that was an option.

As it turns out, Judge Emmet Sullivan also hasn’t heard of this bullshit. At today’s hearing:

SULLIVAN: “At some point, I agree the postmaster will have to be deposed or appear before me.”

Someone’s about to have a criminal contempt hearing.


HeadshotJoe Patrice is a senior editor at Above the Law and co-host of Thinking Like A Lawyer. Feel free to email any tips, questions, or comments. Follow him on Twitter if you’re interested in law, politics, and a healthy dose of college sports news. Joe also serves as a Managing Director at RPN Executive Search.

The Future Of Legal Technology Is Here With Lexis+

There’s no question that law and technology are inextricably intertwined. As new demands and unexpected uncertainties continue to arise, the industry’s need for advanced technology continues to grow. 

LexisNexis, a pioneer in the legal tech space, is meeting that need with the introduction of its comprehensive new solution, Lexis+. We recently sat down with Jeff Pfeifer, Chief Product Officer of LexisNexis, to discuss how Lexis+ is leading the industry into the future of legal technology.

Can you give us some background on why you created Lexis+?

We began engaging with clients on the concept of Lexis+ about a year and a half ago, speaking with over 2,000 of our clients about some broad ideas we had. Ultimately, those conversations led us to identify three key themes that became the reason for building Lexis+. 

First, our clients wanted a better user experience in legal products. We regularly heard comments like, “I understand that we’re working in a professional product, but do legal products have to be so dull and boring?” Second, our clients wanted to see tighter integrations and connections between the products we previously offered on a stand-alone basis. The third really big idea that actually predated all of this work by five to seven years was the notion that law was, relative to some other industries, less positioned to leverage data in driving decisions. 

So, as we began to iterate our product concept for Lexis+, we really sought to address each one of those major themes. We wanted to build a modern user experience that compares with any product experience in a consumer environment, while providing better integrations and data-driven insights.

Are there any specific pain points Lexis+ was designed to address?

The themes I just mentioned intersect with a longer-term trend and bigger-picture problem that all major technology suppliers are seeing – namely that the proliferation of information and data from numerous sources is at the largest point it’s ever been, and it’s growing at an increasing rate. 

Traditional functions like search, which have really been at the center of how our customers have interacted with our products for a long time, increasingly have limitations. So we’re also thinking about how a user five years from now will interact with data in very different ways than they do today. Many of those ideas are in this first iteration of  Lexis+. 

How does Lexis+ fit into the existing Lexis universe of products? 

It’s designed to be part of that universe and also introduce new benefits to the user. As an example, a user in Lexis+ might start an activity in the research section of the product and then be guided to additional insights or information in our Practical Guidance collection. Our goal for Lexis+ is for the user to think less about the individual products we offer and more about the questions they’re trying to answer or the tasks they’re trying to accomplish. Lexis+ is designed to help guide them to the best possible insights wherever they exist in the product experience. 

While you might enter fairly straightforward search terms, we’ll increasingly introduce you to other content sets and even things like analytics. The underlying idea is that data-driven insights help you understand not only that you have to do something like draft a motion, but that you also have to think about whether your motion strategy is appropriate for the business situation you’re addressing. 

Are there any particular features of Lexis+ you’d like to highlight?

In total, there are 12 new feature capabilities that are exclusive to the Lexis+ experience and brand new in the legal market. I’ll highlight a couple.

First, in the area of data-driven insights, there’s a feature called Brief Analysis, which allows you to upload a document and get guided recommendations of additional documents that would add valuable research and strengthen your legal arguments. What’s unique about the application in Lexis+ is the custom machine learning models we built to power the recommendation capability. It really helps users feel more confident that they have, in fact, exhausted their research – that they’ve avoided missing that proverbial needle in the  haystack.

In Lexis+, we’ve also really emphasized the use of data visualization as an alternative to help users understand relationships between or among documents that they might not notice in a standard text result view. We’ve introduced data visualization capabilities throughout the product experience. We’ve enhanced Revel View, which is a data visualization that shows citing connections between documents. We’ve found that, in a standard search interaction in Lexis, users typically don’t engage past the 12th document, even though relevant results don’t stop there. But with data visualization capabilities, we regularly see users interacting with the 50th or the 60th document in the result list, and that’s driven by the visual presentation of the connections between those documents. 

Another extensive use of data visualization is in a feature called Code Compare, which allows you to see how a statute or administrative code has changed over time. We illustrate visually through addition and deletion markups what’s happened as a statute has been amended over time. 

Our Lexis+ Answers product is designed to allow the user to enter a fully-formed question into the search box and get a direct answer. This is an early version of what’s likely to happen with search over time – users will begin to engage with a service like Lexis+ in a more human-like way, with it eventually becoming a dialogue.

In parallel within our Practical Guidance collection, we’ve deployed a number of machine  learning capabilities that allow users to mine very large data sets of contracts, find the market standards for a transaction, and review that information in a visual and summary-based way. Collectively, all these technologies help users get insights out of data in ways they never could before with traditional text-based search results.

Finally, we wanted to address the “fear of a black box” – with machine learning, users typically don’t understand what’s happening in the background. We’ve worked hard in Lexis+ to introduce some features that allow users to maintain control of the search experience. One is called Search Tree, which allows users to see visually how a search was interpreted and make modifications to that search to ensure they’re getting the results they’re looking for. The other is called Missing and Must Include. It allows users to force specific terms or ideas to be included in their results. 

What can we expect to see from Lexis+ in the future?

In November, we’re releasing a companion product to Lexis+ called CaseMap Cloud, which takes one of our most popular software tools and reimagines it completely for a cloud environment, so teams can work collaboratively and add data on litigation matters. We’ve accelerated our development on that product with feedback from customers. These are ideas we’ve had for some time, but the pandemic has really emphasized the need to build tools and capabilities that allow for easier data sharing and collaborative document creation. 

Why do lawyers need Lexis+?

Legal users are clamoring for experiences like those they use in their consumer life, and they’ll have that in Lexis+. Also, tools that were previously separated are now tightly integrated in a way that gives users much better guidance and recommendations about how to answer key legal questions. Finally, the world of data-driven insights is really exciting, and Lexis+ helps answer the important questions that need to be answered. 

Dear God, Don’t Put The Election In The Hands Of Lawyers

It makes me indescribably angry that counting every legally cast ballot is considered partisan, instead of, you know, A CENTRAL TENET OF DEMOCRACY, but here we are. I know you know, but as of this writing there has been no declared winner of the 2020 presidential election — despite what the president might say.

Because there’s an unchecked pandemic raging, Democrats launched a PR campaign to get voters to cast early and mail-in ballots. And voters obliged, but that’s left us in a dilly of a pickle with Election Day having come and gone and no winner declared. Of course, declaring a winner is only a modern convention but the president has the attention span of a gnat, so.

Anyway, we’re now advancing to the litigation phase of the election, which, again, is a disgrace. Pennsylvania looks to be a key swing state, and the effort to get ballots tossed out is already underway there. Then there’s the effort to get the Post Office to actually deliver the ballots that were cast, and, yeah that’s not going well. Actually, it’s been a banner year for election lawsuits, with a record breaking 230 filed between January 1 to October 23.

We already have some intel on the Biglaw firms that are working on the Republican election cases, ahem, Jones Day and King & Spalding. While Dems have looked to Greenberg Traurig, Dentons, and of course their go-to election lawyer Marc Elias at Perkins Coie.

And it’s true, as I’ve had to repeat to myself multiple times over the morning, that Joe Biden’s most likely path to victory (some combination of the upper Midwest “Blue Wall” — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — and Arizona) is still very much viable. But Dems had hoped for a larger margin of victory that would stop Trump from trying to (further) undermine democracy. Because that’s where we are as a nation, we have de jure universal suffrage but the de facto voter disenfranchisement will start to happen in courtrooms.

While I — probably naively — still have faith that the legal challenges will be fruitless and Joe Biden will ultimately be sworn in as our 46th president, it FUCKING SUCKS. Counting ballots isn’t a difficult concept. It shouldn’t mean you’re in the bag for Dems because you want the damn votes cast to be counted. But, again, this is where we are.

Is all this a sign that we’ve entered late-stage democracy? Almost certainly yes. But should you freak out that Biden will lose this particular election? No, at least, not yet.


headshotKathryn Rubino is a Senior Editor at Above the Law, and host of The Jabot podcast. AtL tipsters are the best, so please connect with her. Feel free to email her with any tips, questions, or comments and follow her on Twitter (@Kathryn1).

The Law Firms With The Hottest Appellate Practices (2020)

(Image via Getty)

The legal thread that binds our nation has been stitched into place by appellate lawyers. These attorneys handle challenging, high-stakes problems that can only be resolved in our federal appeals courts or at the Supreme Court, and to thank them for all of their hard work, the National Law Journal puts together an annual “hot list” of the law firms with the best appellate practices.

As usual, the NLJ Appellate Hot List is filled with prominent firms and litigators. This year, these top appellate lawyers were asked about the most valuable lessons they learned at the start of their careers. Here are some of their answers.

Paul Clement, a partner at Kirkland & Ellis:

Be kind. The bar is a small world, and life is long. Today’s adversary is tomorrow’s co-counsel or client, at least if you treat them with respect and courtesy.

Allyson Ho, a partner and co-chair of the appellate and constitutional law practice group at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher:

If you aim for perfection, you’ll hit excellence. Details matter—whoever said “don’t sweat the small stuff” wasn’t an appellate lawyer.

Shay Dvoretzky, a partner at Jones Day:

The client’s goal may transcend the legal issue in a particular case. So always understand the client’s objective first.

Kannon Shanmugam, a partner at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison:

As a young lawyer, you’re going to make mistakes. The key is to learn from those mistakes and never to make the same mistake twice.

Lisa Blatt, a partner at Williams & Connolly and chair of the firm’s Supreme Court and appellate practice:

Own your own style. Being an effective advocate—as well as someone who enjoys the job long-term—requires sincerity and a thick skin.

Elbert Lin, a partner and appellate practice co-chair at Hunton Andrews Kurth:

The lesson that’s stuck with me the longest is that first impressions are lasting impressions. Be extra cognizant that first time before a judge or interacting with another lawyer.

Without any further ado, these are the 24 law firms with the best appellate practices in 2020 (listed in alphabetical order):

Congratulations to all the hard-working lawyers recognized. Well done!

The 2020 Appellate Hot List [National Law Journal]


Staci ZaretskyStaci Zaretsky is a senior editor at Above the Law, where she’s worked since 2011. She’d love to hear from you, so please feel free to email her with any tips, questions, comments, or critiques. You can follow her on Twitter or connect with her on LinkedIn.

Publishers Can Exhale After Motion To Dismiss Granted In Instagram Embedding Case

Photographer Michael Barrett Boesen took an early loss in a federal case he initiated against United Sports Publications, LTD based on a claim that the news gathering organization committed copyright infringement. The defendant had filed a motion to dismiss the action grounded on it embedding an Instagram post published by tennis player Caroline Wozniacki, focusing on a defense of fair use. On November 2, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York granted the motion.

The decision should be of importance for all publishers that are using social media content published by others within their articles. When the embedded content is the focus of the article, use of the image in the embedded content should generally be construed as a fair use.

However, this ruling should not be interpreted as one that provides free rein for the republication of third-party content originally disseminated on social media. The opinion should not be read as one that allows people to embed social media posts because they merely wish to use the images contained in the social media postings and believe that such actions can serve as workarounds to copyright infringement.

In the instant case, the defendant embedded an Instagram post by Wozniacki, who announced that she was retiring from professional tennis. The copyrighted content was not even owned by Wozniacki but, instead, photographer Boesen. The defendant’s article focused on Wozniacki’s career and embedded her Instagram post for context.

Prevailing on a motion to dismiss in a copyright infringement case based on fair use grounds is not a simple task. The moving party must convince the court that the use of the copyrighted content was fair after looking at four distinct factors.

The key concerning the purpose and character of use factor was that the use of the copyrighted photo was one where the copyrighted work itself was the subject of the story, thus transforming the function of the work in the new context. It was determined, referencing prior case law, that an article that embeds an Instagram post featuring a copyrighted photo and reports on that post is transformative. The fact that the publisher was a for-profit business has no effect on the transformative nature of the content at issue.

“This conclusion, which aligns with well-settled case law, does not give publishers free reign to copy and paste copyrighted images at whim whenever they appear on Instagram or Facebook,” the opinion states. “Rather,
it draws a line that balances photographers’ interest in protecting their copyrights with reporters’ interest in covering social media events.”

The second factor, nature of the copyrighted work, was found to tip slightly in the defendant’s favor, mainly because the photograph was a published work appearing on the plaintiff’s own sites as well as Wozniacki’s Instagram. The third factor, amount and substantiality of the portion used, favored the defendant based on it merely embedding an image, which retained Instagram’s markings and diluted the image. Further, Wozniacki had previously chosen to use a lower resolution version of the original.

Finally, with the effect of use on the market factor, the court found that it was implausible for defendant’s use to compete with the photographer’s business or affect the value of his work. Further, the cropped, low-resolution photograph was deemed to be a poor substitute for the original, which is language that will certainly be used by future defendants who embed social media posts into their content.


Darren Heitner is the founder of Heitner Legal. He is the author of How to Play the Game: What Every Sports Attorney Needs to Know, published by the American Bar Association, and is an adjunct professor at the University of Florida Levin College of Law. You can reach him by email at heitner@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter at @DarrenHeitner.

I Just Got Off A 14-Hour-Plus Shift As An Election Judge: Let Me Tell You How Fair The Process Is

This election is a raging dumpster fire of misery. And there’s one reason for that: Donald Trump has been spreading lies to his cult of stupid people, telling them that there is widespread voter fraud despite all evidence to the contrary, because he has been losing.

Yet, this country wasn’t founded by slouches. Sure, they had no indoor plumbing and had certain other obvious flaws (like, uh, you know, support for slavery). But our Founders did anticipate just the kind of electoral theft that Trump is trying to perpetrate. Over the centuries, the safeguards against a big orange dummy stealing the election have filtered through the various levels of government, right on down to the local polling station.

I can’t speak for all counties throughout the country. But I can speak for mine. That’s because I served as an election judge this year.

“Wait a minute,” my regular readers might say. “You’re a partisan hack! How can you be an election judge?”

Absolutely true. I would much prefer a Joe Biden administration to four more years of the country I love crumbling into the dustbin of history. I don’t think that is a surprise to anyone who has ever read pretty much anything I have written.

But, in this state at least, not only is partisan hackery not a disqualifier: it’s a requirement. Election judges here must declare their party of preference, and certain election tasks may only be completed by two election judges, one of either major party. These tasks include helping a curbside voter with special needs cast a vote, and delivering the ballots at the end of the night. In such sensitive tasks, there is an election judge for each major party keeping each other honest. No one casts a ballot without judges of both parties overseeing the validity of the process.

Maybe a more one-off consideration this year is why I’m serving as an election judge at all. This is a first for me, not because I don’t think it’s an important task, but because I just assumed people generally had it covered before. This year, I was asked to serve as an election judge. The city I am working for was having trouble finding people.

My head judge called me about 10 days before the election, sounding a bit worried. She asked me how comfortable I am with confronting people. Very, I said. As important context to that, I am a muscular white litigator in his mid-30s. It went without saying that my presence alone would be an asset against the dumbfuckery we’re all expecting this year, given that poll workers are usually on the older and frailer side of physicality. We have relied so heavily on the patriotic service of retired folks to work the polls that we have taken for granted not only the importance, but the relative difficulty, of the task. This time around, we have to specifically combat susceptibility to intimidation on the parts of voters and election workers. Much of this has always been a problem, but now we’ve all been made more aware of it. Like it or not, steps had to be taken against physical intimidation at the polls this year. And they were.

Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention Minnesota Voters All. v. Mansky, 138 S. Ct. 1876 (2018). What a word-salad of judicial punting that train wreck of an opinion is. At any rate, the very least we can derive from it is that voters in certain states probably can’t wear shirts or buttons or hats directly promoting the candidates on the ballots (if they want to cast a vote, anyway). As to what else may or may not be prohibited, your guess is as good as mine. But rest assured, we election judges have at least tried to keep the MAGA hats and sun’s-out-guns-out Biden tank tops from entering the polling place.

So, there you have it. Hopefully by the time you’re reading this we have a free and fair election result that you can be a little more assured of the validity of by reading this column. And hopefully I haven’t been shot by some wingnut at the polling station.


Jonathan Wolf is a litigation associate at a midsize, full-service Minnesota firm. He also teaches as an adjunct writing professor at Mitchell Hamline School of Law, has written for a wide variety of publications, and makes it both his business and his pleasure to be financially and scientifically literate. Any views he expresses are probably pure gold, but are nonetheless solely his own and should not be attributed to any organization with which he is affiliated. He wouldn’t want to share the credit anyway. He can be reached at jon_wolf@hotmail.com.

Younger Lawyers Should Argue More Appeals And Motions

Adam Rothman (left), and Jordan Rothman.

Facebook from time to time reminds me how old I am by showing me pictures of myself at various times in the past. While recently perusing my news feed, I was reminded that six years ago this month, I argued my first appeal in front of New York’s Appellate Division, Second Department. The photo brought back some vivid memories of waiting anxiously in the attorneys’ room before my appeal was called, and my brother Adam showing up to witness me deliver my first appellate arguments. At the time, I was about two years into my legal career, so it was kind of a novelty that I was arguing an appeal. However, my experiences over the years have shown me that younger lawyers should argue more appeals and motions for a variety of reasons.

One reason why younger attorneys should be more involved in oral advocacy is because they often devote more effort and dedication into arguing appeals and motions than senior lawyers do. Partners at numerous firms often have many tasks other than practicing law. This includes originating business, reviewing bills, ensuring that bills are paid, and dealing with administrative functions at a law firm. Moreover, partners often have more cases to oversee than associates, since they usually have several associates under their supervision who each has their own portfolio of cases. This can limit the amount of time and attention partners can devote to arguing motions and appeals.

However, associates are more likely to take pride and ownership over the opportunity to argue a motion or appeal. For instance, when I was assigned to argue my first several appeals, I was honored to be given the opportunity to participate in the appeals. I spent a significant amount of time reviewing the appellate record, briefs, and cases cited by both sides. Even though I was given a set number of hours to bill for preparing oral arguments, I ended up spending far more hours during my free time preparing for the appeals. I remember taking the briefs and appellate records with me whenever I was on the subway so I could thumb through the documents constantly. The extra consideration associates may give to oral arguments can provide clients the best possibility at success on an appeal or motion.

Younger lawyers should also argue more appeals and motions because they are often more familiar with a case than a partner or other senior lawyer. Associates often need to do the research and draft the briefs necessary in the appellate or motion process. By completing this work, associates are often more familiar with the arguments that will be most successful in a matter and the particular facts associated with a case.

One time earlier in my career, I drafted papers for a high-stakes summary judgment motion. The motion was based on some complicated estoppel arguments that required a detailed understanding of the law and facts of the case. It was eventually decided that the partner would argue the motion, presumably because the partner had argued many more motions than me up to that point in my career.

However, the partner was extremely busy at the time, and had not been closely involved with that particular case for years. He asked me to summarize all of the arguments orally to him before the motion hearing, and I am not sure that the partner read all of the papers that were submitted for the motion. At oral argument, the partner seemed extremely flat-footed when pressed on some issues, and he was unable to answer a few basic questions posed by the court and the other side. Our adversary, however, was extremely well-prepared, and it showed. In the end, our client had an unusually bad outcome after the summary judgment arguments. If I as the younger attorney had argued the case, perhaps I would have presented the arguments more effectively, and we should have selected the advocate who was most knowledgeable about the case.

Younger attorneys should also argue more appeals and motions since many jurists like seeing younger lawyers in their courtrooms. From my own personal experience, judges are more likely to give younger lawyers the benefit of the doubt and flexibility than older attorneys who should know better about the practice of law. One time, when I was waiting to argue an appeal, I saw an advocate (who was either a law student under supervision or a young attorney) absolutely crush oral argument on a criminal case. Not only were the judges impressed with this advocate’s arguments, but they also seemed wowed by how a young advocate could do so well on her first appeal. I have a feeling this perception helped that advocate’s client receive the best consideration possible. Some judges even actively try to incentivize lawyers to select junior attorneys as oral advocates. Many state and federal judges read this column and email me regularly, and I would love to hear the opinion of jurists about whether younger lawyers can make an impact on oral arguments, but from my own experience, it doesn’t hurt.

All told, senior attorneys like to argue appeals and motions themselves, since it is often seen as an honor to go to court on a case. Nevertheless, younger attorneys should argue more appeals and motions in many circumstances to best advance the interests of a client.


Jordan Rothman is a partner of The Rothman Law Firm, a full-service New York and New Jersey law firm. He is also the founder of Student Debt Diaries, a website discussing how he paid off his student loans. You can reach Jordan through email at jordan@rothmanlawyer.com.

What Happened To The Blue Wave The Pollsters And Celebrities Promised Us?

Last night, I stayed up as long as I could, hoping to see the end of a very tumultuous, divisive election. Based on the polls and the poll of polls, I anticipated that most media outlets would project a Joe Biden win before midnight. But that was not the case. The difference in votes were so close that the vote counters in a few states decided to continue counting in the morning. While I was a bit disappointed, when I look out my window and see all of the local businesses boarded up in anticipation of a riot, maybe it is best to let everyone get some sleep.

But from the results I have seen so far, there is no guaranteed “blue wave” that all of the Biden supporters were bragging about and what some Republicans were fearing. The Democrats are expected to maintain control of the House of Representatives although their chances of winning control of the Senate are uncertain.

As for the battle for the White House, the Democrats were unable to flip Florida, Ohio, and Texas as many believed they would. And the rest of the states can go either way until all of the votes are counted.

Even if Democrats are able to control the government in 2021, their control will be fragile. This means they may have to work with Republicans on some issues or see another change in the midterms.

So what happened? Why wasn’t this election a quick cakewalk for the Democrats?

The most logical explanation is that the pollsters were wrong. Maybe their attempts at “randomizing” their sampling group did not work out the way they expected. Or they didn’t get enough participants so they had to make bigger guesses. Or perhaps some people didn’t want to disclose they wanted to vote for Donald Trump.

Or maybe the influencers, celebrities, and random social media commenters were wrong. A lot of people were saying that the blue wave was coming because of the increase in by-mail voting. When I asked them why they assumed all of them would vote Democrat, all I got was speculation. They said things like: “People will vote quickly if they are unhappy with the current government.” Or, “People don’t want to catch COVID, and that is all Trump’s fault.” And some people simply said, “Because [F] Trump.”

So will polling be credible in the future? Or will people take it as seriously as professional wrestling? I think so, but a lot of changes will have to be made. First, some media companies will need to get out of the polling business altogether or hire an outside company to do their polling. One example is the New York Times. While I generally respect the publication, their recent actions — such as the suspicious resignations of James Bennet and Bari Weiss — might make nonliberals hesitant to talk to them. Others who are angry at them may just troll them with false responses. I also think that Fox News, MSNBC, and CNN should take similar action. Because of the perceived bias of their brands, they are more likely to get false answers from hostile participants.

Also, the public and journalists should not blindly give substantial weight to what celebrities say. Celebrities are people, and they are entitled to their opinions. But I don’t think many people are going to vote based on who a celebrity endorses. Instead, most just feel better about their decisions and beliefs if they see that a celebrity agrees with them.

Hopefully by the time this gets published, the election results will be finalized and there won’t be a lawsuit afterward. [Ed. note: LOL, still no final results. -SZ] While there might be some changes after the election, it will not be a blue wave that was promised by pollsters, influencers, and celebrities. One thing is certain. These people have lost their credibility. How much they lost depends on who wins the White House.


Steven Chung is a tax attorney in Los Angeles, California. He helps people with basic tax planning and resolve tax disputes. He is also sympathetic to people with large student loans. He can be reached via email at sachimalbe@excite.com. Or you can connect with him on Twitter (@stevenchung) and connect with him on LinkedIn.