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A First Look At 2026 – Above the Law

(Photo
by
Joe
Raedle/Getty
Images)


Somehow,
in
the
first
century
B.C.,
the
poet
Horace
captured
my
thoughts: 
Odi
profanum
vulgus
,

or
“I
hate
the
rabble.”


When Adlai
Stevenson
 was
running
for
president
in
1952,
he
echoed
Horace. 
Told
that
“every
thinking
person
will
be
voting
for
you,”
Stevenson
replied,
“That’s
not
enough. 
I
need
a
majority.”


That’s
what
happened
on
Election
Day. 
Every
thinking
person
voted
against
Trump
(not
necessarily
for
Harris;
but
against
Trump),
and
it
wasn’t
enough.


I
admit
that
I’m
glad
to
learn
that
the
United
States
in
fact
runs
free
and
fair
elections. 
For
four
years,
Trump
repeated
the
lie
that
he
had
won
in
2020

a
lie
that
both
divided
America
and
undermined
faith
in
our
system. 
But
Trump
didn’t
care. 
Lying
served
his
purposes,
and
America
be
damned.


Now
we
know
the
truth: 
American
elections
are
okay,
and
Trump
lies.


Knock
me
over
with
a
feather.


Where
are
we
now?


Trump
has
won. 
He’ll
appoint
loyalists
to
his
administration. 
Republican
majorities
in
Congress
will
go
along
with
what
Trump
proposes. 
Many
of
the
policies
for
which
Trump
advocated
during
his
campaign
will
be
implemented.


Thus: 
Trump
wants
to
impose
10
or
20
percent
across-the-board
tariffs. 
By
themselves,
U.S.
tariffs
will
trigger
inflation. 
And
when
the
targets
of
those
tariffs

other
countries

impose
reciprocal
tariffs,
inflation
will
get
worse.


Trump
wants
to
maintain
the
tax
cuts
that
were
enacted
during
his
first
administration
and
further
reduce
taxes
on
things
such
as
tips,
Social
Security
benefits,
and
the
like. 
Tax
cuts
are
inflationary,
so
pile
that
inflation
on
top
of
inflation
caused
by
the
tariffs.


Tax
cuts
naturally
increase
governmental
debt. 
Economists
say
that
Trump’s
policies,
if
enacted,
will
increase
the
national
debt
by
about $7.5
trillion

over
the
next
10
years.


Trump
has
also
promised
to
deport
all
illegal
immigrants. 
That
will
cost
tens,
or
hundreds,
of
billions
of
dollars. 
Currently,
about 1.9
million
people
 are
incarcerated
in
the
United
States. 
Trump
says
that
he’ll
round
up,
imprison,
and
then
deport
about 20
million
 more. 
That’s
a
lot
of
new
law
enforcement
officers
and
a
ton
of
new
prisons. 
It
won’t
be
cheap
to
round
the
immigrants
up,
temporarily
feed
and
house
them,
and
then
ship
them
overseas. 
That’s
another
inflationary
pressure
and
addition
to
the
debt.


And,
of
course,
taking
millions
of
people
out
of
the
workforce
will
lead
to
labor
shortages. 
Which
means
wage
increases
for
the
remaining
workforce. 
Which
means
yet
more
inflation.


It
also
means
angry
farmers
and
ranchers
in
Texas,
whose
businesses
have
been
destroyed
by
Trump’s
decision
to
deport
most
of
their
workforce.


If
the
public
protests
the
deportations,
things
could
turn
ugly. 
Trump
may,
as
he
has
said
he
will,
call
out
the
National
Guard
or
active-duty
military
to
control
the
protests.


Trump
will
naturally
claim
credit
for
every
good
thing
that
happens
on
his
watch,
even
if
some
of
those
things
have
nothing
to
do
with
his
policies. 
And
Trump
will
naturally
blame
others
for
every
bad
thing
that
happens
on
his
watch. 
(The
chairman
of
the
Federal
Reserve,
Jerome
Powell,
has
been
pretty
smart
since
his
first
appointment
in
2017. 
Trump
will
be
calling
Powell
an
idiot
in
no
time. 
Mark
my
words.)


But
the
rabble,
as
ill-informed
as
they
are,
will
be
hot
in
2026
when
economic
conditions
have
gotten
noticeably
worse
during
the
first
two
Trump
years.


I
don’t
even
want
to
talk
about
foreign
policy,
where
the
United
States
will
have
abandoned
Ukraine,
fractured
NATO,
and
God
knows
what
else.


I
don’t
wish
bad
things
on
America. 
But
I’m
afraid
we’ve
brought
this
on
ourselves.


Here’s
the
silver
lining: 
There
will
be
a
blue
wave
in
2026. 
Democrats
will
win
a
majority
in
the
House
of
Representatives. 
Democrats
may
retake
the
Senate,
when
public
fury
is
combined
with
20
Republican
seats
and
only
13
Democratic
ones
up
for
grabs
in
the
midterms.  


You
read
it
here
first.


But
I
still
hate
the
rabble.




Mark 
Herrmann


spent
17
years
as
a
partner
at
a
leading
international
law
firm
and
later
oversaw
litigation,
compliance
and
employment
matters
at
a
large
international
company.
He
is
the
author
of




The
Curmudgeon’s
Guide
to
Practicing
Law
 and Drug
and
Device
Product
Liability
Litigation
Strateg
y (affiliate
links).
You
can
reach
him
by
email
at 
[email protected].