Donald Trump (by Michael Vadon via Wikimedia)
Many pundits have seen only clouds over our 2020 presidential race: The coarsening of our national discourse, distrust in elections, nasty partisanship, autocracy.
Isn’t there anything good on the horizon?
Here’s the silver lining that I spy:
COVID-19 caused America to try mail-in voting on a large scale. That experiment worked. We had massive turnout in this election, and at least part of that increased turnout was because we didn’t have to worry about the usual hassles of in-person voting: The weather on Election Day, getting the kids off to school and still getting to the poll on time, waiting in long lines, broken voting machines, and the rest.
I don’t think we’re going back to mandatory in-person voting. Mail-in voting works, and it’s here to stay.
So I offer one silver lining of this election that I’m pretty confident about, and one about which I’m less sure.
I’m confident that we will, in future elections, have more civic participation than we had in the past. If a person can receive a ballot in the mail, leave the ballot on the kitchen table for a couple of weeks, study the ballot (and any other materials) at their convenience, and then drop the ballot in the mail, then more folks will vote than if we require in-person voting.
I view civic participation as a good thing, and I’m delighted to see in the clouds of this election the silver lining of more voters.
Here’s the second silver lining that I see, far more speculative than the first.
If we regularly have higher turnout for elections, then the parties will no longer plot to win elections by “turning out the base” — hoping that a small number of motivated partisans will decide elections in which overall turnout is low. That strategy will no longer work, because turnout will be high.
If parties can’t win elections by turning out the base, what will they do instead?
Here’s a thought: Try to persuade voters on the issues.
This would force the parties to the center, trying to win elections by assembling coalitions that range from the center-left to the center-right.
If this speculation is correct, then perhaps we’ll come to enjoy the new environment. Perhaps the moderation prompted by increased turnout will offset in part the nasty partisanship, fueled by social media and certain media outlets, that makes us all hate each other.
One last thought:
As Donald Trump concludes his time in office, there will be plenty of entertainment as he thinks about his future: Does Trump pardon himself for all federal crimes? (I bet yes; there’s plenty of upside, and very little downside given that he’s already lost the election.) Or maybe Trump resigns the presidency on January 19 and has President-for-a-Day Mike Pence pardon him on the morning of January 20? (I bet no; although that course would eliminate some of the Constitutional objections to self-pardon, Trump couldn’t bear the indignity of resigning, and Pence wouldn’t sacrifice his political future by agreeing to grant the pardon.)
Then comes the afternoon of January 20, and it’s a new day in Washington.
If, as I fervently hope, we don’t hear from President Joe Biden for weeks at a time during his presidency, we can all calm down. Thank God.
But what will we do for entertainment?
Will Trump announce his candidacy for 2024? Will we see campaigns for Don Junior and Ivanka for high office? Will Trump use his high profile to heckle the Republicans from within and the Democrats from without? Will Trump be tried in civil cases ranging from defamation to sexual assault? Will Trump be tried in criminal cases ranging from campaign finance violations to tax fraud to God knows what else? (If you thought the O.J. Simpson case was the trial of the century, you were wrong. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.)
Ah, silver linings. I love ’em.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.