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While a pandemic is a major crisis whenever it occurs, it has been exacerbated because it came during a U.S. presidential election year. And there will be some people will want to take advantage of this crisis for their own political benefit. But will people follow the prior voting patterns based on current economic conditions?
For the Democrats, removing President Donald Trump was going to be an uphill battle regardless of the constant negative news about him. The Mueller Report, the Ukraine investigation, the Stormy Daniels scandal, the impeachment, and covfefe did little to affect Trump’s approval ratings. By the end of 2019, some predicted that he had a decent shot at re-election. This was mainly due to the healthy economy during his term, and the Democrats were hoping for something that would trigger a recession. But when the coronavirus affected China and later spread to South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, and eventually the United States and the rest of the world, that was the black swan that started the economic downturn. Soon after, the resulting business shutdown and stay-at-home orders has resulted in record levels of unemployment not seen since the Great Depression.
This was the opportunity that the Democrats have been waiting for. The mainstream media, or as Trump calls them, the “enemy of the people,” devoted almost round-the-clock coverage to the coronavirus. Endless editorials blamed Trump for his incompetent handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
So the economy is tanking, and it will not recover completely. Does that mean Trump’s re-election chances are doomed? Maybe. While it is possible, I just don’t think it will be the slam dunk his opponents anticipate it will be.
I don’t think that most Trump supporters will change their vote because of the coronavirus and its effect on the economy. They correctly believe that Trump did not cause the virus nor was he responsible for bringing the virus to the United States. And most of them believe that he did everything he could to contain the virus. If anything, they will blame the Democrats since the shutdown orders that caused the massive unemployment mostly started in cities and states with Democrat mayors and governors. To them, his only mistake was not banning all incoming travel from China as soon as the seriousness of the coronavirus was understood.
Also, if the economy is an issue, then this may favor Trump as the economy is showing signs of recovery now that the states are slowly reopening. The combination of numerous loans and grants as well as stimulus payments and increased unemployment compensation provided some financial assistance, although it was not enough to quell the toilet paper line.
Lastly, protests are condemning police brutality in many parts of the country as well as looters who are taking advantage of the civil unrest to engage in violent mischief. While this issue deserves its own column, I’ll say this for now. Most people mourn the unnecessary death of George Floyd and want to see the police officers brought to justice. But they also don’t want looters taking control of the streets. And I certainly don’t want to hear justification for the looters’ actions, especially from my local leaders. The large number of protestors and looters did not follow social distancing rules, and the only reason they wore masks was to hide their identities. So a new wave of coronavirus cases is likely in the future. Soon, the local leaders will have to take the streets back, or they risk putting people in danger from both the virus and violence. If they don’t, they will look weak and spineless, and voters will choose someone (even if they live far away) who will put the looters in their place.
But no matter who wins the election, the approach to handling the coronavirus pandemic will be much different than what is being done now. If Trump is re-elected, it may be a signal from the majority of voters that they are not in favor of lockdowns. Red states will not issue another lockdown order, or such orders will be issued with many exceptions. Blue states are more likely to enact lockdown orders but will probably be targeted in certain high-risk areas as opposed to a statewide order.
If Biden wins, he brings his previous experience coordinating the management of the Swine Flu virus and the Ebola virus while he was vice president. The media coverage of the coronavirus will change. There will be less editorials and more focus on vaccine discoveries and basically living with the virus.
Both candidates will likely consider reopening the country completely while taking steps to protect people who are most vulnerable to COVID-19, such as the elderly and those with weakened immune systems. Future stay-at-home orders will mostly apply to them.
And regardless of who gets elected, there will probably be another economic downturn due to the second wave of the virus. Any changes made to businesses will likely be permanent at this stage. As a result, some people will not get their jobs back or will have to work at reduced pay. This time, banks and legislatures will be reluctant to issue another round of rent or mortgage payment forbearances as those can result in higher interest rates and more difficulty in getting loans.
The 2020 presidential election will be just as fierce as years past. This will likely result in the spread of various strains of misinformation about the coronavirus. And this can be just as dangerous as the virus itself. But when we vote, it is up to us to be our own arbiters of truth and not let a government or a third party do it for us. But no matter who gets elected in November, I am certain that the new government will take a different approach to dealing with the coronavirus. In a country as large, diverse, and influential as the United States, not everyone will be happy with the difficult choices that must be made.
Next week, I will write my final thoughts on the coronavirus. Can we beat it? Or do we live with it?
Steven Chung is a tax attorney in Los Angeles, California. He helps people with basic tax planning and resolve tax disputes. He is also sympathetic to people with large student loans. He can be reached via email at sachimalbe@excite.com. Or you can connect with him on Twitter (@stevenchung) and connect with him on LinkedIn.