[W]hile salary cuts shore up a firm’s finances, they don’t fix the underlying problem: too many lawyers, specifically more lawyers than can be kept growing professionally at the required pace given the volume of work available to them. With the level of U.S. economic activity not expected to regain its Q4 2019 level until the first half of 2022, this is more than a short-term challenge. Unchecked, it creates a post-recession existential risk for firms: clients decamping to rivals to avoid being served by under-experienced associate cohorts. Hence, we should expect layoffs when lawyers return to their offices (you can’t reasonably lay someone off over Zoom).
— Hugh A. Simons, formerly a senior partner and executive committee member at The Boston Consulting Group and chief operating officer and policy committee member at Ropes & Gray, arguing salary cuts may not be enough for some law firms, and that layoffs — and even closures — may be coming down the line. As he notes in his well-reasoned essay, “There’s a new class of associates set to arrive (averaging 6-7 percent of lawyer headcount) and voluntary attrition has gone to zero (as it does in any recession). It will be ugly.”
Staci Zaretsky is a senior editor at Above the Law, where she’s worked since 2011. She’d love to hear from you, so please feel free to email her with any tips, questions, comments, or critiques. You can follow her on Twitter or connect with her on LinkedIn.